Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/18/2013 -- BMI View: Despite a downgrade to our 2012 growth projections for Poland's pharmaceutical market and a less bullish long-term view on the Polish zloty against the US dollar and the euro, we continue to have a positive view on the Polish drug market. Despite the short-term challenges, the market remains attractive over the medium term, and as one of Central Europe's larger markets, the combination of positive demographics and economic growth will be a driver of growth. Over a longer time period, the government's aggressive downward pressure on drug reimbursement expenditure will be reduced despite continued measures to decrease spending in the medium term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.37bn (US$11.26bn) in 2011 to PLN31.03bn (US$9.41bn) in 2012; 7.0% in local currency terms and -16.4 % in US dollar terms. Forecast substantially revised down since the Q312 due to industry factors.
- Healthcare: PLN111.08bn (US$37.51bn) in 2011 to PLN117.00bn (US$35.46bn) in 2012; +5.2% in local currency terms and -5.5% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast stable since Q312, US dollar terms growth lower.
- Medical Devices: PLN6.80bn (US$2.29bn) in 2011 to PLN7.05bn (US$2.14bn) in 2012; +3.7% in local currency terms and -6.8% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast stable since Q312, US dollar terms growth lower.

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Risk/Reward Rating: Poland has lost its long-held leading position at the top of our Risk/Reward Ratings table. While we continue to have a positive view on the Polish drug market in the long term, the significantly greater-than-expected impact of changes to the list of reimbursable drugs on the market at the start of 2012 and further revisions to the reimbursement list released in July have had a negative impact on our assessment.

Key Trends And Developments

- In mid-2011, we substantially revised down our expectations for the Polish drug market following the passing of the Drug Reimbursement Act in late May last year. However, the main driver of the contraction in H112 was the January release of a new list of subsidised medicines.
- With the introduction of a further contractionary reimbursement list from July 1, we now expect low single-figure contractions in H212, with month-on-month annual basis contractions in November and December due to return to more normal purchasing patterns, compared with the elevated growth recorded in 2011. We therefore forecast a local currency contraction of 7.0% for full-year pharmaceutical sales.

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