New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/02/2014 -- Our forecasts for Poland's broader economy and - by extension - the country's power sector remain muted . However, the outlook for both is improving , underpinning our forecasts for modest growth in electricity generation and consumption. Wholesale electricity prices will continue to climb higher as demand for electricity rebounds, incentivising investment in new capacity - although new power plants may come online too late to assuage fears of a capacity deficit.
Poland is in a difficult position as it establishes its future energy policies: it must adhere to EU directives so as to reduce the amount of polluting coal in its capacity mix, but is struggling to attract the investment needed to replace or modernise ageing capacity as low wholesale electricity prices and weak demand sap interest in the power sector. With 5GW of coal-fired capacity due to come offline before 2016, Poland faces the prospect of an electricity deficit as demand picks up again - triggering calls for the introduction of a capacity mechanism that would be underpinned by law.
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That said, there are indications that the outlook for the economy and the power sector is improving gradually. The economic rebound will be sustained by stronger domestic consumption, low inflation and employment growth. In the power sector, the outlook for wholesale electricity prices continues to improve. Although they remain low by historical standards, rising prices are a key indicator of sentiment in the Polish power market and show there is increased optimism about future demand growth. At the time of writing wholesale electricity prices had risen to around PLN173.5/MWh as demand contraction (in part due to a warm winter) lagged a decline in generation output in the first half of 2014.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk continues to clash with the European Commission (EC) as he attempts to ensure relatively cheap, but highly polluting domestic coal remains a key part of Poland's energy mix. This...
The Poland Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View:
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis:
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts:
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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