Fast Market Research recommends "Poland Retail Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/22/2013 -- The Polish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Poland's economic outlook of government austerity measures coupled with a tailing off of investment after the European football championships in 2012, which will drag on domestic demand and consumer spending.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Polish retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the continued deterioration in the eurozone on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Polish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Polish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 32% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%. The country comes sixth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and outperforms for Risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow by almost 42% between 2013 and 2017, reaching US$39.63bn. BMI forecasts supermarkets and hypermarkets to outperform the rest of the MGR sector, with sales in each subsector expected to rise by around 43% over the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region: with disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats. In the competitive arena, BMI sees continuing upside potential from the senate vote in 2007 against a law that would have imposed construction restrictions on hypermarkets. The ruling has paved the way for Poland's major operators to continue unfettered with their expansion plans.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- In light of Poland's increasingly depressed household segment, we have downgraded our expectations for real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 to 1.9% and 3.0% respectively, from 2.3% and 3.7%. A mild eurozone recovery - we forecast real GDP growth in the bloc to pick up from -0.6% in 2012 to 1.0% in 2013 - will support export demand and boost investment inflows, while Poland's central bank is likely to ease monetary policy by 75-100 basis points over the next 12 months, aiding domestic demand.
- The environment for the household sector is likely to improve by mid-2013 as the eurozone crisis begins to stabilise, boosting exports and investment, and government austerity measures ease. Overall, we forecast real private consumption growth of 1.1% and 1.6% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, down from 3.1% in 2011.
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