Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2013 -- The Polish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Poland's economic outlook of the austere 2012 public budget passed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which will drag on domestic demand and consumer spending.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Polish retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the negative effects of the eurozone crisis, together with domestic austerity, on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Polish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Polish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 34% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes sixth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and outperforms slightly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow by 75% throughout the forecast period, reaching US$46.44bn by 2016. BMI forecasts hypermarkets to outperform the rest of the MGR sector, with sales expected to rise by almost 79% over the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region: with disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees continuing upside potential from the senate vote in 2007 against a law that would have imposed construction restrictions on hypermarkets. The ruling has paved the way for Poland's major operators to continue unfettered with their expansion plans.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI forecasts Polish real GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2011 to 2.5% in 2012, substantially below consensus expectations. Fiscal consolidation and slower investment growth will make Poland more vulnerable to a contraction in the eurozone.
- BMI forecasts household consumption to grow by a tepid 1.0% in 2012. We see little scope for real wage growth to increase much beyond the 0.7% it averaged in 2011. Although we forecast inflation to fall from 4.3% in 2011 to 3.3% by end-2012, real wage growth will be contained by relatively high unemployment (13.3% in March) amidst a weakening economy.
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