Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Shipping Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/31/2013 -- Recovery Will Be Slow And Protracted
Although we continue to predict a recovery in the Polish economy, we think it looks like being a rather long-drawn out affair, and have reduced our growth forecasts. We now expect 2013 GDP growth of 1.2%, down from the 1.5% we had pencilled in. We have also cut the projection for 2014 to 2.3% GDP growth (from 2.7% before) and for 2015 to 2.8% (from 4.1%). On the short term net exports continue to be the main engine of growth, although we see them improving relatively tentatively. The key here will be the performance of Poland's main export market, Germany. Although the domestic labour market remains weak, we think an improvement in H213 will help lift household consumption. Certainly there are signs of gradual improvement in consumer confidence. We expect government spending to be muted, and investment remains in the doldrums. While all this points to a gradual improvement, medium term growth prospects are becoming increasingly challenging given low levels of R&D and innovation in Polish manufacturing and increasing competition from South Eastern European countries such as Romania and Turkey. This is likely to prevent a rapid return to 4%-plus annual growth rates.
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The country's major maritime ports will see positive growth in 2014, in most cases at rates significantly above GDP expansion. This is particularly so for Gdansk, which continues to see rapid development of its capacity, as well as good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services, offering Poland's importers and exporters cheaper and quicker transport links to ports in China. While at a much lower rate, Gdynia is also expected to grow, having enhanced its container role following its addition as a port of call on Hapag-Lloyd's service and further improvements of its intermodal links.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 10.9% to 38.779mn tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018 we project an 8.7% average annual increase.
- 2014 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 17.6% to 1.485mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term we project a 12.3% average annual increase.
- Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 2.6% to 16.339mn tonnes, with five-year average annual growth at 3.6%.
- Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 6.8% in 2014, to 779,114TEUS, with growth set to average 6.5% on the medium term to 2018
- 2014 total trade growth forecast at 3.25%, up from an estimated 2.5% in 2013.
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