New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "South Africa Business Forecast Report Q4 2014"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/06/2014 --Core Views:

- The South African economy will grow at a tepid rate over the medium term, with real GDP expanding by just 1.8% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015. Our below-consensus view is predicated on several factors including weak investment sentiment and the ongoing retrenchment in the gold and platinum mining sectors.
- South Africa's current account deficit will shrink to 4.6% of GDP in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015 - following a shortfall of 5.8% in 2013 - thanks to recovering export growth and subdued import demand. The deficit will be covered by capital and financial inflows, meaning that a repeat of the sharp rand depreciation seen in mid-2013 is unlikely.
- President Jacob Zuma's position looks more secure due to the relative success of the ruling African National Congress at the May 2014 elections. The composition of the new cabinet suggests that more indecision on economic policy lies ahead, but some of the appointments are positive for investors and there are early signs of progress regarding the hugely damaging strike in the platinum sector.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Major Forecast Changes:

- We are now forecasting depreciation of the rand over the coming years owing to a sustained current account deficit and tepid inflows of foreign investment. We previously held a more constructive outlook based on expectations of momentum for reform following the May 2014 elections, but we now expect 'more of the same' for policy (ie slow progress).

Key Risks To Outlook:

- A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds. This would threaten South Africa's balance of payments.
- A sudden uptick in domestic political risk, such as an escalation of the industrial unrest that blighted various sectors in 2013.
- A sustained period of high oil prices would exacerbate the already-sizeable current account deficit.

Forecast Table:

The South Africa Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in South Africa and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of South Africa's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of South Africa's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise South Africa's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in South Africa, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The South Africa Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the South Africa economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for South Africa through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The South Africa Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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