Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/15/2013 -- Fuelled by the world's third largest proven gas reserves, Qatar has dramatically expanded export capacity become the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) globally. However this position is in doubt: with a moratorium on capacity expansion and growing competition from elsewhere, Qatar is likely to cede its top spot by the end of the decade. With small gains forecast for gas and liquids output, Qatar is increasingly moving up the value chain by expanding downstream capacity with refinery expansions and investments in gas-to-liquids technology.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:

- We expect Qatari gas production to reach nearly 190bcm by 2022; however, we expect growth to slow toward the tail end of our forecast period. With a moratorium on development of North Field, we expect supply growth to stall after the Barzan gas project comes online from mid-decade.
- There is some upside to this outlook, with an active effort to boost foreign exploration of Qatar's onshore and offshore acreage. The recent discovery offshore Block 4 - the first new find in 42 years - hints at Qatar's untapped potential. Exploration success could fuel production gains, but with consumption rising and moratorium on exports, any additional supplies look likely to fuel the domestic market. Indeed, natural gas consumption is set to rise from an estimated 35bcm in 2012 to nearly 72bcm by 2022.
- We see Qatari proven oil and natural gas reserves declining modestly over the forecast period, with a 1.9% decline in natural gas reserves expected between 2013 and 2021. Indeed, we have only slightly upgraded our reserves growth forecast on the back of the March 2013 gas discovery made at the offshore Block 4 North. The field is estimated to hold 70.8bcm of gas-in-place (GIP). We have taken a conservative estimate, accounting for just 15% of that estimate being booked as actual reserves. Oil reserves will decline much more slowly than gas reserves, ending the forecast period less than 1% lower than 2013 levels. Exploration successes also create upside risks to these forecasts.
- Export capacity is also set to hold steady, with no plans to increase LNG capacity behind the current 77mn tonnes per annum or around 107bcm mark reached in 2011. However we expect that overall LNG export levels will remain high, with growing demand led by Asia. According to Qatari officials, any addition to LNG send out capacity will come from efficiency gains rather than new trains. There is some upside to pipeline exports supplies, with proposals to add additional compression facility to the Dolphin Pipeline which would allow for supplies closer to full design capacity. Growing demand in the GCC markets would support expansion, but a key sticking point will be price with gas currently sold at a significant discount.

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