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Recent Study: Australia Food & Drink Report Q1 2014

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/20/2013 -- A growing number of external and domestic signs point to tough times for the Australian economy in the quarters ahead, including a growing amount of evidence of job losses and capital expenditure cuts. These trends are in line with our expectations for economic activity to start slowing in H213. We expect these negative trends to accelerate as we enter into H213 and persist in 2014, as the economy struggles to rebalance away from overinvested industries such as mining and real estate. As a result, we continue to see a shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.4%; forecast to 2017 = +6.9%.
- 2014 soft drinks sales = +1.7%; forecast to 2017 = +11.9%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.6%; forecast to 2017 = +11.0%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; forecast to 2017 = +27.6%.

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Key Industry Trends And Developments

Downward Revision To Support Wheat Prices: We have revised down our forecast for wheat production from 25.5mn tonnes to 24.0mn tonnes after the ABARES (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) revised wheat output to 24.5mn tonnes. The revision comes on the back of dry conditions over most of Western Australia, and over-abundant rainfall in Eastern Australia. We expect more revisions to be made to output in the coming months and have placed our forecast slightly below the current official estimates. However, we believe more significant losses to output will be unlikely as yields are still expected to be higher than in 2012/13. ABARES and the USDA both forecast wheat yields around 1.85-86tonnes/hectares in 2013/14, compared to 1.67tonnes/ha in 2012/13.

Mondelez International To Enter New Markets: US-based food processing company Mondelez International plans to enter the coffee segment in the Netherlands and Australia through its Carte Noire and Velours Noir brands respectively as part of an effort to expand its global coffee footprint. The company also plans to introduce its Carte Noire Nespresso-compatible espresso capsules in Spain in mid-October as part of its global expansion drive.

Risks To Outlook

China could implement aggressive stimulus measures to support its weakening economy, which would in turn support Australian exports. While we maintain that any Chinese stimulus is likely to be smaller than the previous boost in 2008/2009, this remains a key risk and is something we will be watching closely.

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