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Recent Study: Australia Mining Report Q2 2014

New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "Australia Mining Report Q2 2014"

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/14/2014 -- With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. We forecast Australia's mining sector value to reach US $187bn by 2018, growing at an annual average rate of 4.0% over our forecast period. This contrasts with an average growth rate of 21.7% per annum over the past decade.

Australia has been among the biggest beneficiaries from the China-led commodities boom over the past decade, attracting huge amounts of investment into the minerals space. Driven by China's voracious appetite for key commodities such as coal and iron ore, the value of Australia's mining industry had increased by more than six-fold from US$24bn in 2003 to US$147bn in 2012. As a result, this has seen the sector's share of GDP rising from 4.5% to 9.6% over the same period. However, we believe the boom years in the mining industry is over. With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown.

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We believe Australia will be the biggest loser from the mineral imports shift in China (see 'Minerals Import Squeeze: Bittersweet Outcomes', July 17, 2013). The latter commands a prominent role in Australia's exports of key commodities including coal and iron ore. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. The rising tide of economic nationalism, declining labour productivity and aggressive minimum wage legislation will compound the challenges in the mining industry, amplifying the downshift in Australia's economy going forward (see 'Tough Times Ahead, What Can Replace The Mining Boom', May 03, 2013). We expect the value of Australia's mining sector to reach US$187bn by 2018, growing at an annual average rate of 4.0% over our forecast period. This contrasts with an average growth rate of 21.7% per annum over the past decade.

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