New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2014 -- Overall, we believe there is the most potential for growth in Brazil's soybean, livestock/dairy and coffee segments over the medium term. This is because of a shift in food consumption growth towards Asia for these items, while demand growth from traditional buyers will be subdued. We are more cautious about the sugar cane sector as a whole, as mills are suffering from low profitability linked to low global sugar prices and heavy debt burdens. Only the ethanol industry will encourage cane production growth, but it is still unclear if the government will continue to see biofuels as a priority in its energy mix in the medium term. In the short term, recurring weather concerns linked to climate will pose downside risks to all our forecasts over the coming years and to global prices as the country is such a significant exporter.
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- Soybean production growth to 2017/18: 22.9% to 100.8mn tonnes. This will come as more area is shifted from corn to soy in the coming years on the back of an extremely competitive soy/corn ratio by historical standards.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 18.6% to 10.5mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
- Milk production growth to 2017/18: 33.0 % to 43.1mn tonnes. Brazil has the potential to become a significant exporter of dairy products over the forecast period to 2018 if its milk collection and processing infrastructure can be brought up to international standards.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 1.8% (down from 2.5% in 2013).
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 5.9% average (down from 6.2% in 2013)
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD170.5bn in 2014, forecast to increase by an average of 1.2% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.
The Brazil Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Brazil Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Brazil.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
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