New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/10/2013 -- The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, especially as the country is to host first the FIFA Football World Cup in 2014 and then the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. However, the report also highlights long-term structural weaknesses facing Brazil's tourism market, particularly in the realm of national transport infrastructure and the shortage of hotels across the country. The latter issue indicates long-term development potential for the sector but could lead to supply shortages during the 2014 and 2016 sporting events. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading hotel players in the Brazilian tourism sector as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time.
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With the FIFA World Cup imminent, BMI is positive about prospects for Brazil's tourism sector, despite slow growth in other areas of the economy. We forecast tourist arrivals of 5.9mn in 2013, representing y-oy growth of 4.1%. We then expect tourist arrivals to spike to an impressive 10.5%, with associated positive impacts for tourist revenue and transport and travel revenue.
Concerns that Brazil's transport infrastructure expansion was lagging behind schedule were put to the test by the Confederations Cup, which was held in Brazil in June 2013 and is traditionally viewed as a test run for the World Cup. Although held across fewer locations, the Confederations Cup is still a test of the capacity of transport infrastructure and levels of security. In the event, the tournament passed off well, with no major transport bottlenecks and no security incidents. The Brazilian authorities will be heartened by this, as it will act as a positive signal to tourists that that the country is able to accommodate the expected major influx of tourists.
BMI forecasts, which have been revised, are as follows:
- BMI has downgraded the 2013 tourist arrivals forecast to 5.9mn, or growth of 4.1%. This does not reflect a slowing of arrivals to Brazil but a downgrade to final arrivals data for 2012. We continue to forecast a major increase in arrivals in 2014, of 10.5%.
- BMI has raised its forecast for outbound air transport passengers to reflect increased investment in airport infrastructure. We are forecasting 87.1mn passengers carried in 2013, or y-o-y growth of 3.2%, rising to 103.9mn by 2017, when y-o-y growth will hit 8.9%.
- BMI has revised its 2012 data for domestic hotels and restaurants industry value to BRL70.8bn, representing a y-o-y decline of 1.02%. We expect the industry to return to growth in 2013, growing by 5.0% to total BRL74.9bn.
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