New Business market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Real Estate Report Q1 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/13/2013 -- The Bulgaria Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors throughout the country in the context of continuing strife in the eurozone and its neighbouring countries.
With a focus on the country's principal cities including Sofia, Varna and Burgas, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of a stalled construction pipeline on a market which has suffered considerable rental weakness in recent years.
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Although 2011 saw some glimmers of hope, these have yet failed to materialise going into 2013. Our mid-year 2012 data for the commercial real estate sector has been less than encouraging with the office sector in particular still suffering from oppressive market dynamics. With the economy still fragile, demand lacklustre and political stability in question, the news for the sector is almost exclusively gloom and doom until the region's economy is back on track. Nevertheless, there are opportunities in the tourism and retail sectors.
- We expect the Bulgarian economy to slow in H212 as demand from the eurozone weakens, forecasting full-year real GDP growth of 0.1%. Conversely, we expect a recovery in the bloc, coupled with some fiscal loosening ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, to drive GDP growth of 1.4% in 2013.
- A disorderly default in Greece would wreak economic havoc on Bulgaria whose economy is highly exposed to the beleaguered Hellenic nation via trade, investment and banking sector avenues. Although this risk is somewhat mitigated by recent developments, in the event of a deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, we would be forced to revisit our forecasts for Bulgaria across the board.
- There remains considerable caution among those investing in Bulgaria's construction and infrastructure sector as growth remains low again this quarter. Growth is up slightly, with a forecast of 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012, however, this is expected to slip back to 0.8% in 2013. The ongoing eurozone crisis continues to crush any long term signs of growth as private sector worries about corruption and growth have also dampened prospects. The industry value is expected to rise from US$2.8bn in 2012 to US$3.2bn by 2016.
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