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Recent Study: Mexico Agribusiness Report Q1 2014

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/06/2014 -- Overall, the long-term outlook for the Mexican agriculture sector looks less optimistic than in previous years. Consumer demand growth is largely slowing, particularly in key areas like sugar and corn, as per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, particularly in the sugar, grains, and livestock sector. Although we forecast a rebound in production for key sectors like corn and meat, we have a largely subdued production outlook for these sectors, as cheap US imports, lower prices, and distortions due to government intervention reduce production incentives. We see the strongest growth potential in the poultry and coffee sectors, as Mexico remains a key coffee exporter and poultry consumption looks to show the strongest growth. However, even our coffee production forecasts have been downgraded recently due to disease concerns.

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Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 11% to 24.0mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 12.0% to 4.8mn tonnes. We believe sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates.
- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 13.0% to 4.9mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help to boost production. However, production will not exceed the 2011/12 total.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 3.5% (up from 2.3% in 2012; predicted to average 3.4% to 2017).
- Consumer price inflation (average): 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (same as 2013).

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