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Recent Study: Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/09/2014 -- With the 2013/14 cocoa season complete we maintain our view that production will recover after two lean years. We expect this rebound to set the stage for healthy production growth over the next five years as investment continues to pour into the sub-sector. Plans for the country's first chocolate factory suggest that consumer demand could also gather pace. Rice and sugar will benefit from a new irrigation scheme and more generally from the government's more nuanced efforts to incentivise local production: favouring financial incentives over the previous rather clumsy policy of merely hiking up tariffs. Investment has also been forthcoming for the dairy segment, although we caution that issues with storage and infrastructure may limit any short - term gains here. Feed costs are expected to continue to be a burden on livestock producers and the Boko Haram insurgency remains a threat to both livestock and grain production in northern Nigeria.

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Key Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 59.4 % to 360,000 tonnes. Higher global prices, a result of the struggles of other West African producers, will provide stimulus to production, as will burgeoning investment.

- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 19.5 % to 9.3mn tonnes. A fast-growing population with steadily rising incomes will ensure strong demand for the staple grain.

- BMI U niverse A gribusiness M arket V alue: 3.6% year-on- year (y-o-y) increase to USD95.3 bn in 2015; forecast to grow by 30.6% from 2013-2018.

- Real GDP growth 2015: 6.5% y-o-y (level from 2014).

- Consumer price index (% y-o-y ave) 2015: 8.3 % (up from 8.2% in 2014).

Industry Developments

Mould caused by heavy downpours has affected cocoa farms in the Cross River region and led to farmgate prices falling by as much as 8%, Socodevi, a development NGO, told Bloomberg. The beans have mould levels reaching 21%, making them way below the quality...

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.


BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Nigeria.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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