Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/10/2014 -- BMI View: There is uncertainty over the government's efforts to reduce dependency on food imports although we expect that the government will persevere in enforcing the substitution of cassava for increasing proportions of wheat in flour. Wheat production is in danger of disappearing altogether as the Boko Haram insurgency drags on. Tariffs on rice are being reduced creating uncertainty for domestic producers, but this was probably inevitable in the face of runaway smuggling. We still expect to see support for production from government and private sector investors. Corn production will bounce back over the coming year and should see sustained growth driven by buoyant demand for both human and livestock consumption. We see poultry and pork output gaining momentum, although milk remains the segment we are most optimistic about. Finally, cocoa farmers will continue to enjoy high prices for their produce despite better than expected results for other West African producers and we believe they are well-placed to increase their share of global output.
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- Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 59.6% to 358,600 tonnes. Higher global prices, a result of the struggles of other West African producers, will provide stimulus to production, as will burgeoning investment.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 19.9% to 9.3mn tonnes. A fast-growing population with steadily rising incomes will ensure strong demand for the staple grain..
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD 6.28bn in 2014; forecast to grow by an average of 6.7% a year over 2014-2018.
- Real GDP growth 2014: 7.0% y-o-y, (up from 6.7% in 2013).
- Inflation (annual average) 2014: 7.5% (down from 7.8% in 2013).
Nigeria appears to be abandoning its ultra-high tariffs on rice in the face of lost revenues on imports as smuggling has spiralled out of control....
The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
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