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Recent Study: Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2013

Fast Market Research recommends "Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/08/2013 -- We see the most growth potential for the livestock sector in Poland owing to increased export potential to the EU and Asia. The livestock industry in the country is relatively price-competitive compared with industry majors such as Brazil and the US, but it does not necessarily have the right export networks and infrastructure to rival these countries. We believe a law prohibiting kosher beef production, the horsemeat scandal and recent quality concerns in the beef industry will limit growth potential in the beef sector, but poultry and pork are likely to continue to perform strongly. For grains and sugar, we see growth potential limited by the recent U-turn in the EU's biofuels policy, which restricts the amount of food crops to be used in the production of ethanol.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 4.2% to 9.7mn tonnes. The EU's Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, has encouraged consolidation, modernisation of agricultural holdings and infrastructure improvements in the country's grain farms. Increasing international investment will also play a role.
- Beef consumption growth to 2017: 8.2% to 183,600 tonnes. Over the past decade, beef consumption has declined rapidly in the wake of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and with consumers believing that poultry is a healthier choice. The horsemeat scandal, as well as recent quality concerns, could affect consumption growth over the long term, and we have revised down our forecasts out to 2016/17.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 1.2% (down slightly from an estimated 2.0% in 2012; predicted to average 2.7% over the period 2012-2017).
- Consumer price inflation: 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2013 (down from the 4.1% y-o-y estimated for 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.8% y-o-y increase to US$15.2bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase on average by 0.5% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

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Revisions To Forecasts:

- Wheat 2013/14 production revised down from 9.6mn tonnes to 9.3mn tonnes because of historical revisions and base effects. Also, wheat prices will be lower.
- Corn 2013/14 production revised up from 2.7mn tonnes to 3.1mn tonnes based on the latest official estimates.

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