Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- The Slovenian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact of continuing fiscal austerity on Slovenia's economic outlook, and the increasing likelihood that the country will need external financial assistance to support its ailing banking sector.

We examine how best to maximise returns in the Slovenian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explore the impact of decreased demand for imported goods on the part of Slovenia's major eurozone trading partners on the Slovenian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Slovenian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Slovenian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 13% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%. The country comes third out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), where it performs better in terms of risk.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales predicted to increase from EUR5.09bn in 2013 to EUR6.40bn by 2017, a rise of 25.7%.

The country has experienced the fastest growth in discounting within the CEE region, with hypermarket sales forecast to outperform the rest of the MGR sector between 2013 and 2017, growing by 30.7% to EUR2.64bn. The increase will be mostly as a result of new store openings, expansion of product ranges and increased consumer numbers gained through the closure of smaller independent outlets.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- The most recent data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia showed a sharp decline in all components of real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2012, with year-on-year (y-o-y) growth sinking to -3.2%. In light of the data and the increasingly harsh economic climate, BMI has revised its growth forecasts further downwards. We now believe that the Slovenian economy shrank by 2.2% in 2012, down from our previous forecast of -1.8% real GDP growth. In 2013, we forecast growth of -1.8%, a reduction from our previous estimate of -0.7% real GDP growth.

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