Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/12/2014 -- Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the raised possibility that the extraordinarily loose monetary policy that has been the norm in the US is tapered off. However, with continued investment in facilities, growth in private final consumption, and ever-expanding coal exports, we forecast growth in both total tonnage and container volumes at South African ports in 2014.

Headline Industry Data

- Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2014 is forecast to increase by 4.2%. Over the medium term to 2018 we project a 4.8% average annual increase.
- Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.0% in 2014. Growth will average 2.8% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2018.
- 2014 total trade growth is forecast at 3.8%, and to average 4.4% per annum to 2018.

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Key Industry Trends

Strike Violence At Ngqura: The South African port of Ngqura has been struck by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) strike that has affected business across the country. The strike began on April 25 and was still ongoing at the time of writing on June 5. The strike has not been peaceful, with properties belonging to workers at the port who have elected not to go on strike having been petrol bombed and vandalised.

Port Tariff Rises Lower Than TNPA's Demands: A proposal to increase port tariffs by 14.39% for FY14/15 by the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) was quashed by the Port Regulator of South Africa. TNPA had asked the port regulator to raise the tariff by 8.5% and release excessive tariff increase margin credit provisions worth SAR454mn (USD42.79mn). Meanwhile, a 5.9% rise in tariff approved by the regulator came into effect on April 1.

RBCT Clears Backlog: Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) has struggled to deal with a backlog of vessels at its facility over recent months,...

The South Africa Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.

BMI's South Africa Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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