Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/30/2013 -- Upstream interest in Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves remains strong, with foreign players, particularly China, eager to gain access to the country's lucrative gas fields. The energy relationship between Turkmenistan and China continues to strengthen, with continued upgrades to existing long-term supply agreements and investment commitments. Turkmenistan has made ambitious gas production targets, raising its own forecasts of gas production in 2030 to 250bn cubic metres (bcm) from 230bcm previously. Although 2030 is outside our forecast period, the ambitious figures highlight the country's optimism, which is reflected in our forecasts for gas production, which we expect will more than double from 67bcm in 2012 to 152bcm in 2022.

The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

- Turkmenistan and China continued to build on their strong energy relationship with a new commitment in July 2012 for Ashgabat to supply Beijing with 65bn cubic metres per year (bcm/y) of gas by 2030. In May 2013, Turkmengaz chairman Kakageldy Abdullayev said, during a gas congress in Ashgabat, that the second stage of development at Galkynysh would eventually boost annual gas exports to China by 25bcm to 65bcm per year (thus implying that current exports stood at 40bcm). At the same congress, Li Xiaoning, deputy director general at China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (a subsidiary of CNPC), said that this volume would be achieved by 2020, or 10 years before what was initially expected. According to Xiaoning, Turkmen exports to China have totalled almost 50bcm since December 2009. Turkmen data suggest that gas exports to China totalled 20bcm in 2012.
- Upstream interest remains strong on the back of the most recent discovery, the Galkynysh gas field (previously known as South Yolotan), which has been confirmed as the world's second largest following an appraisal by auditor Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA). The field is thought to contain 13.1-21.2trn cubic metres (tcm) of natural gas. The former Soviet Republic holds the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves and plans to treble annual gas output to 230bcm by 2030, 180bcm of which would be for export.
- In November 2012, Turkmen officials announced plans to begin production from the Galkynysh field in 2013. The start date was to coincide with the 56th birthday of President Kurbanguly Berdymukhmedov on June 30 but it was deferred to autumn 2013 so as to coincide with the official visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Figures on initial volumes and exact delivery dates were not available at the time of writing.

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