New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Ukraine Freight Transport Report 2015"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/22/2015 -- The Ukrainian freight industry is facing headwinds in 2015 as Ukraine's economy is set to remain in a deep recession throughout 2015 as the conflict in the east rages on. Soaring inflation, a crippled banking sector and severely weakened currency will keep the wider economy close to the brink of collapse over the coming quarters.
The disruption to industrial activity in the east - where the bulk of Ukraine's main industrial exports including steel are produced - has led to a decline in exports, posing problems for the freight industry going forward. Capital controls implemented by the authorities in order to cap exchange rate pressure are also hampering currency convertibility and by extension, international trade. Real export volumes fell by 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q2 2014, from 2.3% y-o-y in the previous quarter, and we estimate a full year contraction of 15% in 2014, followed by a further 3.0% in 2015, before growing very modestly by 2% in 2016. However, the devaluation of the hryvnia has significantly weakened household purchasing power, leading imports to fall by 11.3% y-o-y in Q2 2014, and helping to offset the drag to headline real GDP from weaker exports.
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In terms of our forecasts for the Ukrainian freight modes during the next 12 months, the picture looks set to be a miserable one across the board with growth contracting due to the political and economic situation in the country. Inland waterways will see the sharpest decline (13%), while air, road and rail will all see contractions in y-o-y growth in 2015. The Port of Odessa is set for measly annual gains of just 0.01% on 2014.
Headline Industry Data
- 2015 Air freight tonnage is expected to contract by 0.60%
- 2015 Rail freight is forecast to contract by 4.50%
- 2015 Port of Odessa throughput is forecast to grow by 0.01%
- 2015 Road freight is forecast to shrink by 2.80%
- 2015 Inland waterway freight is forecast to contract by 13.00%
- 2015 Total real trade growth is forecast at 0.02%
The Ukraine Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Ukraine Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top 5 import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn).
- Port Data: Throughput (?000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%).
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