Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/18/2014 -- BMI forecasts all the major indicators for the Ukrainian tourism industry - inbound travel in particular - to be negatively affected by the deteriorating security situation and political crisis as well as the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia. We expect to see a deep contraction in the Ukrainian economy in 2014, and investment in the tourism industry will suffer as a result.

In advance of the crisis in Ukraine, we were expecting to see arrivals grow to over 32mn by 2018. In light of the recent destabilising event we have drastically reduced our expectations to 8.4mn arrivals in 2018, down from a high of 24.7mn in 2013. There will be knock-on effects on Ukraine's tourism industry value and hotel numbers, which are set to fall by 58% and 30% respectively in 2014, as well as tourism-related receipts, which will lose around USD1bn in value as a result of the crisis.

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Ukraine's economic outlook from 2014 onward is also fairly dismal, with BMI forecasting a 28.9% fall in GDP this year. This will result in a sharp drop in outbound and domestic travel, as well as a decrease in investment in the industry from both the government and the private sector, as well as contributing to the decline in hotel numbers.

The situation remains fluid, and if a comprehensive peace deal and reconciliation process is embarked upon successfully by the pro-Russian armed groups and the Ukrainian government, then there is hope that the industry can bounce back faster than we predict. However, there are limited signs of this happening at present. As such, we advise serious caution when looking to invest in Ukrainian tourism at present.?

Key BMI views include:

- Total arrivals to slump by nearly 70% in 2014 to 7.5mn.
- ?European countries? continue to dominate inbound arrivals, though all of Ukraine's top source markets will send fewer tourists in 2018 than they did 2013.
- ?Hotel numbers are forecast to drop by 30% in 2014, and occupancy rates will fall from 24.6% in 2013 to 11.9%...

The Ukraine Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Ukraine Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian tourism industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (?000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (?000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (?000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (?000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (?000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (?000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (?000), (growth % y-o-y).

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