Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/07/2012 -- BMI View: We expect oil production in Gabon to fall to 241,000b/d in 2012 and decline to 234,000 b/d by 2016, as falling output from mature fields sustains a downward trend for what was once the third largest oil producer in Africa. Attempts by the government to improve fiscal incentives and reduce its presence in the country's upstream sector have been undermined by ongoing labour disputes that led to the majority of the country's oil production being shut down for several days in 2011. We do, however, highlight upside risks to our outlook. A final investment decision on a new refinery would allow Gabon to become an exporter of refined products, while increased deepwater exploration may be enough to raise reserves estimates and offset falling onshore volumes.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil & gas sector are as follows:

- BMI expects oil production to fall from 241,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, to 234,000b/d in 2016, as fields mature. However, should tensions between labour unions further impact on exploration or production, investments may move elsewhere in the region and thereby accelerate the decline in output.
- Greater rewards stem from the potential that with increased exploration of Gabon's deepwater, prospects may result in commercial discoveries that would offset falling volumes from existing mature fields; or are significant enough to raise the country's reserves levels. However, at this stage few new drilling campaigns have been announced so BMI has left its oil reserves forecasts unchanged.
- With the existing refinery scheduled to be shut down in 2016, at the same time as the new facility is to come online, Gabon would not only avoid the need to import expensive refined fuels, but would also gain the capacity to become a fuel exporter. However, until a final investment decision (FID) is made on this project, we have chosen not to include it in our forecast despite having already assessed its potential impact.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise very gradually and from a low base. We expect demand to rise from 14,000b/d in 2012 to 15,000 by 2016.
- BMI estimates that gas production will continue to rise in line with consumption over the next decade. The government's nascent Gas Master Plan, is likely to so increased use of gas as a feedstock for power and according to the government will increase upstream activity to harness non-associated gas resources in the country. However continued investment in the infrastructure to harness and transport gas remains necessary.

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