New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Germany Business Forecast Report Q3 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/27/2013 -- While weak economic data out of Germany has been in line with our below-consensus real GDP growth estimate for 2012, the collapse in business and consumer confidence has prompted us to revise down our 2013 GDP projections. We expect growth to recover in the second half of the year, although this will be mainly driven by external rather than domestic demand.
We still believe a grand coalition between Germany's centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains the most likely outcome following the September 2013 general election. Under such a government we would expect slightly less focus on fiscal austerity both at home and for periphery eurozone states, which would be net positive for domestic demand and the future of the single currency.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Improved terms of trade with Asia have prompted us to revise up our medium-term forecast for Germany's current account surplus. While we expect moderately narrower surpluses over the next few years, we see little chance of Germany running a current account deficit for at least the next five years.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2013 real GDP growth forecast to Germany from 1.3% to 0.8%, on the back of the recent drop in business and consumer confidence readings.
We have revised up our current account surplus forecast for 2013, from 6.3% of GDP to 6.9%.
Key Risks To Outlook
We see downside risks to our 2013 real GDP growth forecasts coming from domestic and external factors. On the domestic front, uncertainty surrounding policy beyond the 2013 general election could see domestic demand stagnate this year, while the outlook for German exports is clouded by question marks over Asian demand and the sustainability of China's economic stimulus. The trajectory of the euro poses another risk to our positive net exports view. At present we believe that persistent problems with periphery states will keep the currency on the back foot over the next few years, but there is the possibility that as tail risks to the currency union dissipate, the euro stages a relief rally, hurting Germany's terms of trade in the process.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- United States Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Malaysia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report Q3 2013