Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2013 -- BMI View: Germany's mature mobile market is showing the first signs of saturation and our forecasts see limited growth in subscriber numbers. However, more positively for operators will be the opportunities offered by new smartphones and data services that are key to revenue growth. Data already makes up over two-thirds of non-voice revenue and income from voice services keeps falling. Broadband access remains an important driver and the roll-out of LTE maintains Germany's reputation for forward-looking telecoms operators. Consolidation in the cable market will provide robust competition for broadband services across different technologies.

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Key Data

- In terms of subscriptions, the German mobile market has reached maturity and we forecast limited growth for the five years to 2017. Instead of growth through subscription acquisition, operators will turn increasingly to data services.
- Although smartphones account for a high proportion of handsets sold, penetration remains low, giving scope for data and other VAS growth in the coming quarters and years.
- Germany fell to sixth place in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings under new methodology that places greater weighting on data services and our in-house private consumption growth forecast.

Key Trends And Developments

There has been significant corporate activity recently in Germany with the future of both KPN-owned EPlus and Telefonica O2 called into question. However, following the acquisition of KPN by America Movil, it has been reported that E-Plus is no longer considered a target for merger or sale. Meanwhile, Telefonica listed its German operations in October 2012, which cover wireline and wireless services, in the biggest European listing of 2012. Telefonica Deutschland now trades separately, valued at around EUR6.6bn after IPO, with Telefonica Group selling a 23.17% stake and raising EUR1.45bn to pay down group debts.

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