Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Ghana Agribusiness Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/11/2012 -- BMI View: Ghana's cocoa sector will remain a vital part of the country's agricultural industry in the coming years. After registering a significant year-on-year decline in 2011/12 production, we are forecasting a mild improvement in 2012/13 on the basis of better weather conditions. Elsewhere, we see the country's overall food security remaining fairly stable despite recent increases in global prices and, to some extent, local prices. The 2012/13 corn harvest is under way, and we expect production to increase only slightly year-on-year, to 1.65mn tonnes. Over the long term, production could see considerable growth should genetically modified seeds be adopted. This is now possible after changes to bio-safety laws in 2011. We believe that poultry production and consumption will see the most growth among the livestock complex owing to price competitiveness and local preferences.
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- Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 15.1% to reach 990,000 tonnes. Yield gains are likely to continue. Rising GDP will allow easier credit access to cocoa farmers wanting to expand production.
- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
Even with stagnant production, and our expectation for a mild increase in consumption, we see the country's food security remaining broadly stable. Despite food price inflation, the country's food security has generally remained stable in recent months owing to adequate supplies, as prices rose in line with global prices. The north of the country, bordering the Sahel region, remains the least food-secure of all regions. Looking forward, we see average production and weakening global prices to constrain food price inflation over the coming months, assuming the country avoids dry weather. The 2012/13 season appears less vulnerable to dry weather than the 2010/11 season, which faced a second consecutive year of dry weather owing to La Nina (which brings dry weather to Africa). For the 2012/13 season, we are expecting a mild El Nino weather pattern, which is likely to bring wetter weather. Although this could delay plantings, it could also increase yields.
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