New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Greece Agribusiness Report Q2 2012"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/22/2012 -- BMI View: The outlook for Greek industry, including its agricultural sector, continues to worsen. We maintain our view for dairy and grains production to slow in 2011/12 as difficult credit conditions take some producers out of business. We expect livestock production to stagnate. Sugar output will be the only crop to register an increase, which is likely owing to base effects and the recent decision by the European Commission to abolish EU production quotas by 2015. We will monitor closely the development of the ongoing debt crisis to see the effect on the agricultural industry.
- Wheat production growth 2010/11 to 2015/16: 4.2% to 1.8mn tonnes. Grains farmers are likely to remain frustrated with the austerity measures implemented in the country; it will take some time for a resolution to the economic crisis to impact credit availability for farmers.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 5.9% to 178,300 tonnes. Poultry is a more widely consumed meat than beef. It is perceived to be healthier and more affordable than red meat.
- Milk production growth to 2015/16: 2.9% to 2.1mn tonnes. Greece currently does not produce more milk than is permitted under EU laws, and improvements in yields will most likely be moderate in the coming years.
- 2012 real GDP growth: -4.5%, an improvement from -7.1% in 2011. GDP growth is predicted to average -0.8% from 2011 to 2016.
- 2012 consumer price inflation: -3.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 3.5% y-o-y in 2011. Forecast to average 0.3% from 2011 to 2016.
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In 2010, grains farmers were among the first to take action against austerity measures. In January 2010, thousands of rice, corn and wheat growers blocked main roads and border crossings, demanding a freeze on debt repayments, fuel subsidies and minimum crop prices for their produce. In January 2012, farmers gathered again in the south of Greece to protest the soaring cost of insuring agricultural products.
Greece exports most of its dairy products to Germany. In fact, Germany buys 81% of Greece's milk exports and almost 35% of cheese exports. This makes the country's dairy sector heavily reliant on German demand for its products. In a context in which most of Greece's debt is also owned by German banks, this makes relations between the two countries quite tense.
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