New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/03/2013 -- BMI View: Extending the life of existing nuclear reactors, coupled with gas-fired expansion and greater use of renewables, makes it likely that Hungary can cope with modest power demand growth. However, in order to meet its longer-term ambitions to become a significant exporter of electricity, it will have to invest heavily in new nuclear generation and place greater emphasis on its renewables programme.
While renewables are a core part of power supply growth, Hungary accepts that the expansion of wind and solar alone will not be enough to meet rising demand, with nuclear the only realistic low-carbon option available to state generator MVM. It has been estimated by the government that nine gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity will need to be added by 2025 and that nuclear will account for the single biggest addition.
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Key trends and developments in the Hungarian electricity market:
- Hungarian power consumption is forecast by BMI to grow by an annual average of 1.50% between 2012 and 2021, reflecting the relative maturity of the country's energy market. Growth in power generation during this period is anticipated to average 1.9% per annum, meaning there will be no dramatic change in import dependency, with existing nuclear capacity to continue to operate. Longer-term expansion of supply above the rate of demand growth could ultimately deliver the country's desired export potential.
- The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid and the high costs of doing so are the main barriers to wind energy development in Hungary, according the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of Hungary's electricity demand.
- According to BMI forecasts, non-hydro renewables generation will reach just under 3.7 terrawatt hours (TWh) by 2021. Of the total, wind power is forecast to reach 1.2TWh by the end of the 10-year forecast period. These figures fall short of government targets, but a revision of policy would accelerate growth in the use of renewables.
- Power prices are relatively high when compared to those available in the country's European peers. May 2012 data, for example, show that household customers were paying around 15.4% more than equivalent users in the Czech Republic. Hungarian prices are significantly below those of Germany, providing support for long-term export plans.
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