Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/03/2012 -- BMI View: Still A Bright Spot
We have trimmed our growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2012 and 2013, but only marginally so. BMI's view is that the slowdown in the global economy, and in Chinese growth which will for the first time in the last decade come in at under 8%, will have a knock-on effect on Indonesia. On the other hand, the country's domestic economy is in fairly rude health, with consumer spending looking solid and investment also performing well as the government and the private sector begin to tackle the often postponed need to expand and update infrastructure. BMI now expects the Indonesian economy to grow by 5.8% in 2012 (down from 5.9% in our last quarterly report); our outlook is for GDP growth of 6.2% in 2013 (was 6.3%). In the five years to 2016 we expect growth to average 6.2% per annum, confirming the country as a regional outperformer.
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As far as industry specific factors are concerned, we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are therefore encouraged that after many delays, Indonesia Port Corporation II (IPC) has announced that it will invest US$2.47bn to develop an extension of the Tanjung Priok port in North Jakarta, the country's largest port. Of this, US$1.38bn will be invested in container terminal infrastructure with the aim of more than tripling annual capacity from 5mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 18mn TEUs upon completion in 2023.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 5.6% to 49.736mn tonnes, with average growth of 5.7% expected over our forecast period to 2016.
- 2012 Palembang total tonnage forecast to grow 3.6% to 10.595mn tonnes, with average growth of 4.1% over our forecast period.
- 2012 Tanjung Priok container throughput forecast to grow 4.3% to 6.046mn TEUs, with average growth of 9.3% over our forecast period.
- 2012 Palembang container throughput forecast to grow 5.7% to 91,736TEUs, with average growth of 6.2% over our forecast period.
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