Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iran Defence & Security Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/11/2013 -- The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that despite the domestic and diplomatic respite provided by the recent election of reformist-minded president, Hassan Rouhani, Iran faces extreme economic and security challenges partly as a result of its nuclear programme and also of its unpopular support for the Assad regime in Syria
International sanctions have gutted Iran's oil exports, which have now sunk to less than half of their usual level. The United States government hopes that this extreme economic pressure, combined with the buildup of military assets in the region, will force the Iranians to make concessions before Israel launches a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities; a major US-Israel arms deal in April saw the Jewish state receive sale of advanced ballistic technology and aircraft, something that will concern Iran's leadership.
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Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Despite sanctions, the regime continues to proceed with ballistic missile technology; a July report from the Pentagon to the US Congress warned of Iran developing ICBM capability 'by 2015'. However, the West and Iran are likely to 'muddle through' in the near-term - this will likely take the form of further negotiations amid a backdrop of continuing sanctions and tension with Israel.
- Iran may move to develop alliances to non-aligned regional powers; a delegation from Tehran recently held a meeting with India's defence minister, raising the possibility for closer relations.
- A report from the United Kingdom's parliament in July criticised the granting of arms export licences to firms attempting to send materiel to a number of suspect countries - including Iran. This demonstrates the regime's interest in renewing and developing its under-pressure arms industry.
- Iran will face more political and diplomatic pressure in the MENA region; its proxy in Lebanon - Hizbullah - has become embroiled in Syria's civil war, and newspaper reports have claimed that Iran has been training separatist fighters in southern Yemen.
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