Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/31/2013 -- While the start of major upstream projects over in the coming quarters highlights Iraq's potential, volatile production and weak gas production underscore the country's challenges. Although we expect strong growth in both oil and gas output over the course of our forecast period, we expect delays and setbacks to continue, causing production to underperform in light of the country's raw potential. As the political situation between Baghdad and Erbil remains strained, we see further challenges ahead as a pipeline to Turkey nears completion.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil & gas sector:

- We have slightly revised our 2013 production forecast for Iraq, accounting for lacklustre growth even as major upstream expansion projects are underway. However, while we expect these fields to deliver gains into 2014, in light of temporary setbacks and longstanding challenges, we expect output to average only 3.1mn b/d for 2013. Although Iraqi officials are confident they can deliver an additional 500,000b/d in production over 2014, we are more conservative in our forecast given a history of underperforming and downwardly revising targets. Iraq is targeting production of 4.5mn b/d by 2014, up from the 3.4mn b/d in production capacity Iraq is targeting by end-2013.
- While we see production significantly lower at 3.6mn b/d currently, due to continued challenges associated with security, infrastructure, weak incentives and a cumbersome bureaucracy, we note that there is sizable upside to this figure given the ramp up of a host of major upstream projects. However, most notable for the 2014 target, is that the bold number fails to include any contribution from the semi autonomous region of Kurdistan.
- According to Ashti Horami, natural resources minister of the Kurdistan region, an oil export pipeline is near completion and may be online before the end of 2013. The 300,000 barrel-per-day pipeline to Turkey would dramatically increase the region's export capacity with trade currently limited to volumes moved by truck. The pipeline, which the central government continues to oppose as an illegal method to subvert the authority it claims over the management of the entire country's oil and gas sector, is set to only further reduce Baghdad's leverage over a region that has increasingly asserted its autonomy from federal authorities.

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