Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/28/2012 -- Recession Impacts Freight Sector

The Eurozone crisis has had a deeper impact on the Italian economy than was at first hoped, dragging GDP into an estimated 2.3% contraction in 2012 and a predicted standstill (0% growth) in 2013. While the worst of the fiscal crisis is now over, and we do see a recovery on the way, the resumption of growth in 2014 will be a modest affair, at 1.1%. Indeed, we do not see annual growth getting much beyond the 1% mark in the years between now and 2017. This sets a significant constraint on the local freight transport industry, although some positive industry-specific factors will allow a degree of 'de-coupling' from the macroeconomic gloom. For example, rail freight operators believe that growing intra-European business will boost tonnage at higher-than-GDP rates.

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Headline Industry Data

- contraction in 2012).
- Air freight volumes are expected to fall by 0.8% in 2012 and recover with 2.6% expansion in 2013.
- Road haulage will grow by 1.6% to 1.238bn tonnes in 2013, after a 9.0% contraction in 2012.
- Cargo volumes carried by rail will increase in 2013 by 2.9% to 96.368mn tonnes.
- In real terms Italy's trade (imports + exports) will drop by 1.1% in 2012 and recover with 3.0% growth in 2013.

Key Industry Trends

Rail Growth Will Be Intra-European

One of the key themes in the Italian rail freight sector over the last year has been the increasing focus on building better intra-European cargo routes, to achieve faster and more efficient connections from Italy to various different parts of the continent. Already in late 2011 a group of rail freight companies called for action to improve what they described as the 'most important European corridor' - the rail link running between Rotterdam and Genoa, which takes in Cologne, Duisburg, Mannheim, and Basel, as well as offering an onwards link to Zeebrugge. A number of other initiatives aimed to improve services and capacity between Italy and a range of European destinations such as Poland, France, Germany, Sweden and Bulgaria.

Tough Air Freight Market: Cargoitalia Goes Into Liquidation

Cargoitalia went into voluntary liquidation at the beginning of 2012. Industry analysts said the age of its fleet had been a factor in its difficulties. They added it was likely that there would be further company failures in the sector, especially among carriers operating older freighters. Competition had been intense, particularly from rival Cargolux, which had obtained a licence to operate out of Italy. In a last-ditch effort to win back business, in late 2011 Cargoitalia had decided to reduce scheduled services in favour of charter and wet lease operations, launching an 'on-demand' division. This came too late to turn its fortunes around, however.

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