Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- We believe that there is long-term potential for growth in the local consumer market, but flag up short-term concern about the potential for increased goods prices later in the year, which we believe will feed through to weaker consumer confidence and weigh on private consumption.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a weak global growth environment on the Mexican consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. We assess the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Mexican retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Mexican per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 31% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 32%. Mexico comes third (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail risk/reward ratings.

Among all retail categories, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales expected to rise by 54.1% between 2013 and 2017, from US$2.04bn to US $3.15bn.In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government having signed a decree to amend the regulation of health supplies, which should strengthen Mexico's business environment and encourage domestic industry growth. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- We revised our forecasts for real GDP growth in Mexico down in August. We now forecast growth of 2.3% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014, compared with 3.8% in 2012. We believe that while recent hurricanes pose a downside risk to growth in Q313, the Mexican economy will sustain a broad recovery through to the end of the year, after a weak performance in H113, and accelerate at a robust pace in 2014.
- We have revised up our real private consumption growth forecast from 2.8% to 3.4% for 2013, and from 3.2% to 3.8% in 2014. Real private consumption expanded by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113, despite a significant deterioration in the economy, with real GDP growth coming in at 1.0% y-o-y during the same period, illustrating the consumer's resilience. Moreover, improving consumer confidence and retail sales growth, the latter expanding by 1.3% y-o-y in July after contracting by 0.4% y-o-y in H113, point to greater consumer spending in the second half of this year.

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