Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/10/2014 -- BMI believes Mexico's tourism industry has enormous long-term potential, largely owing to its proximity to the US. However, there are concerns with regard to rising levels of insecurity and the negative image this is sending to potential tourists.
BMI estimates that full-year tourist arrivals totalled 10.8mn in 2013, a 0.2% year-on-year increase. Data throughout the year had indicated a decline in arrivals, so we are encouraged that Mexico experienced a strong end to the year. We believe this bodes well for arrivals growth in 2014, which we forecast to come in at 2.1%. This reflects a slight increase in arrivals from North America, particularly the US, in line with the improving prospects for the US economy. However, we would caution that Mexico's tendency to track US economic performance means that the tourism industry remains vulnerable to further economic slowdowns north of the border.
The prospect of steady industry growth throughout the forecast period to 2018 is encouraging ongoing investment in the hotel industry. International hotel chains such as Marriott and Hilton are looking to expand their presence in the country, competing with well-established chains such as Grupo Posadas and Melia. We forecast the number of hotels to reach 19,890 by 2018, up from 18,380 in 2014.
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Key forecasts for Mexico's tourism industry:
- BMI has extended its forecast period to 2018, incorporating new forecasts for all data sets.
- BMI is forecasting arrivals of 11.1mn in 2014, representing growth of 2.1%. Growth will remain around this level for the rest of the forecast period, implying steady development of the tourism industry.
- Steady growth will feed through into increased industry value. BMI is forecasting hotels and restaurants industry value to reach US$36.9bn by 2018, up from US$27.7bn in 2014.
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