Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/30/2012 -- BMI View: The operational environment for drugmakers in Pakistan has worsened over the past year, partly as a result of the dissolution of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the subsequent decentralisation of drug regulation. The recent drug contamination scandal in Punjab has renewed calls for the formation of an independent, centralised drug authority. Unless the matter is addressed adequately, multinational drugmakers will continue to struggle with cumbersome bureaucracy, which only serves to compound numerous unresolved existing intellectual property (IP) and market access issues.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: PKR171.20bn (US$1.98bn) in 2011 to PRK189.66bn (US$1.98bn) in 2012; +10.8% in local currency terms and +3.4% in US dollar terms. - - Healthcare: PKR361.13bn (US$4.18bn) in 2011 to PKR402.40bn (US$4.35bn) in 2012; +11.4% in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. - - Medical devices: PKR35.14bn (US$407mn) in 2011 to PKR40.58bn (US$439mn) in 2012; +15.5% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms.
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Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412, Pakistan ranks in an improved 16th position, out of the 18 markets in the regional matrix. Pakistan ranks below the regional averages for both composite risk and reward figures, in spite of its large and growing population.
Key Trends & Developments
- In July 2012, the federal government approved 32 submissions for licensing to new drug companies. - - In June 2012, it was reported that the USAID had completed the renovation and expansion of the Government of Pakistan's central contraceptives warehouse in Karachi. Through this project, USAID will install computerized logistic networks in all 143 districts in 2012 to help prevent stock outs of medical commodities. It is expected that pilferage, leakages, rationing, and corruption will be minimized within the contraceptive supply chain as a result of these improvements. As part of this project, USAID also funds medical supplies and equipment for federal, provincial, and district governments throughout Pakistan.
BMI Economic View: The early release of the country's FY2011/12 (July-June) provisional national accounts, although susceptible to revision, showed the country rebounding strongly last fiscal year against our previous expectation of a continued slowdown from FY2010/11. Our scepticism regarding the state of the country's ongoing recovery has only been reinforced by the continued weakness of industrial production and export growth trends. Even though we expect the recovery to persist as domestic demand conditions continue to improve, we believe that the economy remains below par, and its outlook will be hampered by the government's fiscal mismanagement, the long-running energy crisis, and its substantial exposure to the EU.
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