Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Freight Transport Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/09/2012 -- The growth in freight transport volumes in Poland is set to slow in 2012 as the country's trade is buffeted by global macroeconomic headwinds.
The crisis in the eurozone and the projected recession in Poland's main trade partner are a threat to Poland's freight transport sector, with Germany - the country's main export partner - forecast to witness its real GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to slow to 0.7% from 3% in 2012. While Poland's economy is exposed, we believe a slowing in growth (real GDP is forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2012 from 4.3% in 2011) will be the extent of the damage, with the country's consumer offering something of a buffer. As a result of this, we warn of a slowing in growth in freight volumes as Poland's freight transport sector will be hit by a slowing in exports, but that the damage will be somewhat decreased by Poland's continuing demand for imports and its role in shipping goods into Eastern Europe.
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Post-2012, BMI predicts Poland's freight transport growth to pick up once more, with the country's air freight an outperformer. Over the medium term (2012-2016) we forecast the country's air freight volumes to grow by 41.5%.
Despite this positive outlook Poland's LOT Polish Airlines, the parent company of LOT Cargo is once again looking for a buyer of the 68% stake which the Polish Treasury owns and is putting up for privatisation. Earlier in 2012 Turkish Airlines looked to be the likely buyer, with the carrier hoping to be able to restructure the Polish airline and develop Warsaw as a dual hub for the carrier with Istanbul. Turkish Airlines has now pulled out with LOT chief executive Marcin Pirog told Polish Radio that Turkish Airlines have 'explained that their main reason for halting negotiations was that after speaking to [their] lawyers they understood that they would not have factual control over the company,' as investors from outside the EU cannot own majority stakes in EU air carriers.
No other new buyers have yet come forward and this is a blow to Poland's plans to privatise stakes in its transport operators as a way to modernise them and encourage investment. We highlight that the country's stake in the national rail freight operator PKP Cargo is also due for privatisation.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.5%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.7%;
- 2012 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to fall by 10%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 2.8%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.3%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 3.3%.
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