Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/09/2013 -- The Romanian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Romania's economic outlook of the volatile domestic political environment.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Romanian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of renewed uncertainty over the future of the eurozone on the Romanian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Romanian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Romanian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 23% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 37%. The country comes ninth out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), with a rating of 34.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow by more than 49%, compared with 21.1% for overall food sales. MGR is predicted to expand its share of the total food market to 63.5% by 2017, when value sales should reach US $13.13bn. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that large-scale infrastructure improvement is ongoing and that Romania will receive substantial influxes of EU funds and loans over the coming years. The EUR7.1bn (US$9.2bn) investment into rural development during 2007-2013 forms part of the national budget.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- In light of the sharp collapse in Polish domestic demand in the first quarter of 2013, we have downgraded our real GDP growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014. High unemployment and stagnant wage growth combined with an uncertain economic outlook will keep domestic demand restrained, and we now estimate real GDP to grow by just 1.5% in 2013 and 2.7% in 2014, from previous forecasts of 1.9% and 3.0% respectively.
- The collapse in household consumption has been perhaps the most significant dynamic in recent quarters, largely underpinning the sharp deceleration in headline real GDP. Retail sales growth dropped from an average of 6.4% y-o-y in 2012 to just 0.8% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2013.

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