Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/03/2012 -- Following a year in which BMI saw signs of recovery, 2012 will signal further growth, albeit it at a slower pace on the back of the macroeconomic outlook.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.5% in 2012 following a growth of 11.25% in 2011.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2% in 2012. The mode did not manage to defy the downturn, but so far appears to be back on its feet and gradually recovering to pre- 2008 levels.

BMI notes that St Petersburg and Vostochny, two of the country's major ports, completed their recovery in 2011 and will see continued growth in 2012 and over the medium term.

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Headline Industry Data

- 2012 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.2%.
- 2012 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.3%.
- 2012 Port of Novorossiysk throughput is forecast to grow by 5.5%.
- 2012 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%.
- 2012 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.8%.
- 2012 Total real trade growth is forecast at 6.5%.

Key Industry Trends

Car Transporters Call For Transport Restrictions Review

The Association of European Vehicle Logistics (ECG) called for a review of Russian transport restrictions concerning the axle weights in spring time. A letter addressed to the Russian prime minister and deputy prime minister, suggests an urgent review of restrictions, which severely limit the car transport sector and manufacturers, harm consumers and provide 'an active disincentive to investment in the Russian auto and logistics industries'.

Major Acquisition In The Rail Freight Sector

Globaltrans, one of Russia's largest private rail firms in terms of the size of fleet owned, completed in May 2012 its US$540mn acquisition of Metalloinvesttrans (MIT). The Russia-based iron ore and hotbriquetted iron producer was acquired on a cash and debt free basis. As part of the deal, Globaltrans will also provide rail freight and logistics services to Metalloinvest for the next three years.

Ust-Luga Needs Better Railway Connections

The Ust-Luga Container Terminal (ULCT) at the port of Ust-Luga is now fully connected to Russia's railway network, with the terminal now able to freight 30% of its container traffic by rail. Boxes can now be rail freighted to Moscow or St Petersburg. Development at the port may however soon start to outpace the rail freight connections. RZD is calling on terminal operators to start investing in the port's railway infrastructure.

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