New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/09/2013 -- Core Views
We maintain Slovenia will need an emergency bailout, given the dire state of the domestic banking sector. We also forecast the government to miss its fiscal deficit target of 2.9% of GDP in 2013 and forecast the deficit at 4.1% of GDP. following a 4.6% shortfall in 2012.
Political instability will remain elevated, following the collapse of Janez Jansa's government, which will undermine efforts to push ahead with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 to -2.3% and 1.0%, from -1.8% and 1.1% respectively, in our previous quarterly report. This comes as a result of weaker than expected domestic demand in 2012, the crisis in government and our belief that a bailout will be requested in 2013.
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We have raised our target for public debt in 2013 to 57% of GDP, from a previous 53%, due to the additional borrowing required to rescue the banking sector.
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