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Recently released market study: Taiwan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/17/2012 -- BMI View: Refinery expansion plans have been thrown into turmoil due to political intervention, and Taiwan may not see a new plant built within the next decade. Meanwhile, a growing appetite for imported gas has created a need for fresh LNG purchase schemes, with Australian and Qatari volumes on the rise and Papua New Guinea set to become a new source of supply.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Taiwanese Oil and Gas sector are:

- In January 2012, Ichthys LNG signed a legally binding sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Taiwan's state-owned CPC. Taiwan will take delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Ichthys LNG project offshore Western Australia. Under the terms of the 15-year agreement, Ichthys LNG will sell 1.75mn tonnes per annum (tpa) to Taiwan from 2017. This equates to 2.4bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year. CPC is taking a 5% stake in Royal Dutch Shell's Prelude LNG project in Australia. CPC has agreed to buy 2mn tpa (2.7bcm) of LNG from Shell for 20 years, from 2016.
- In December 2011, CPC signed a 21-year LNG purchase agreement with Qatar's Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company - for an annual 1.5mn tonnes (2.1bcm) starting from 2013. In March 2010, the partners in the Papua New Guinea (PNG) LNG project also signed a 20-year SPA with CPC. Under the agreement, the PNG LNG project will supply CPC with around 1.2mn tpa of LNG.
- Taiwan's gas-fired power generation capacity will increase 67% by 2030, Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang said in October 2011. This rise in capacity will be a major driver of the strong and sustained gas demand growth trend. Taiwanese demand should be around 19.5bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2016. BMI forecasts a gradual rise in Taiwanese LNG imports throughout the decade, with volumes increasing from an estimated 16.0bcm in 2011 to 19.4bcm in 2016, and to 21.4bcm by 2021.
- Given large industrial demand, which is inherent in the energy equation, consumption of oil and power is expected to move broadly in line with the GDP trend. Taiwan's domestic crude oil production is expected to have been less than 700 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, meaning virtually all of the country's oil was imported. Our forecasts for crude oil consumption are for an increase from an estimated 994,000b/d in 2011 to around 1.15mn b/d by 2016, and to 1.29mn b/d by 2021
- For 2012, Taiwan's oil and gas import bill is forecast by BMI at US$51.6bn, assuming an OPEC basket oil price of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl). By 2016, and assuming an oil price of US$99.00/bbl, combined oil and gas costs are put at US$51.5bn, rising to US$56.5bn by 2021, when the oil price assumption is US$97.00/bbl.

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