Fast Market Research recommends "Turkey Infrastructure Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- BMI View: With Turkey's healthy construction pipeline, complete with numerous high-profile projects within both its infrastructure and residential/non-residential sectors, we continue to see long-term strong construction industry growth. However, the short-term outlook has been dented by social unrest and macroeconomic conditions, which have caused BMI's Country Risk team to downgrade Turkey's economic growth forecast for 2013. Still, .6% average year-on-year real growth in Turkish economy over our forecast period far outstrips any developed market in the region, making Turkey an attractive investment destination.
There are downside risks to Turkey's healthy construction sector outlook, which come in the form of the European debt crisis, structural flaws in the domestic pension and banking sectors making project financing difficult, along with the increasingly high cost of credit. Together, these factors resulted in a tough year for the industry in 2012. However, as we pointed out at the time, activity in the equity markets did not indicate that major Turkish construction players are unduly concerned, and on the back of a strong project pipeline, we maintain a healthy growth outlook. This view is now playing out. Average real construction industry growth for the period 2013-2022 is forecast at 5.3%.
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We see sustained healthy growth in Turkey's construction sector over our 10-year forecast period; however, due to the country's history of high volatility and abrupt trends, in addition to the potentially far-reaching repercussions for the Turkish economy if there were to be a contraction in the construction sector, we are keeping a careful eye on any developments.
Key developments over the last quarter:
- The rail sub-sector could see a considerable boost its planned privatisations and break-up of the Turkish rail operator TDCC. The prospect of a Chinese loan to fund the construction of a US$35bn high-speed train line spanning 7000km between Edrine and Kars is still on the table, although we highlight the risk of that money never materialising. Furthermore, the final stretch of the Istanbul to Ankara high-speed rail link is likely to be concluded in 2013.
- Istanbul's third airport, which if fully realised will become the world's largest, was awarded in May to an all Turkish consortium headed by Limak Holdings. Financing is likely the greatest risk in this project, with the winning bid reaching US$22bn for the concession to build and operate the facility for 25 years.
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