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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2012 -- The Turkey Tourism Report examines the latest performance of the tourism sector and looks at its longterm potential. The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during 2011, after an impressive start earlier in the year (probably boosted by the Arab Spring, which affected tourism rivals in the region such as Egypt and Tunisia), but remained strong at just under 10% compared with 2010.
In the short term, BMI anticipates a sharp slowdown in the sector, mainly due to extremely weak economic conditions in the eurozone - a major source region. Also, regional political instability, particular the situation escalating in Syria, which has a border with Turkey, is likely to deter visitors. This represents a reversal of fortunes for Turkey, as BMI believes that the sector benefited from the regional instability in 2011.
Provisional figures for January-April 2012 show a decline of just under 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in foreign visitor arrivals. (It should be noted that during the base period in 2011, there was significant growth of over 21% y-o-y in arrivals). Notably, out of the top-10 source markets, there was a substantial fall in arrivals from Iran and Syria (-42% and -32% y-o-y respectively), while the key source market, Germany, provided a 6% fall. Visitors from Europe as a whole fell by 5% y-o-y, though there was slight positive growth in the number of arrivals from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
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In the hospitality sector, provisional data for Q112 show a 7% y-o-y fall in room nights sold. Foreign tourist nights, accounting for 65% of the total, fell by a sizeable 11% compared with Q111, but domestic tourist nights were up slightly.
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:
- Although BMI expected growth in foreign arrivals to slow this year, poor data for the first four months of 2012 have contributed to a revised growth forecast of 2.5% for 2012, down from 6.1% previously. BMI has also reduced the forecast for 2013 from 7.8% to 6.0%.
- BMI's eurozone real GDP growth forecast for 2012 has been lowered slightly to -0.6% from -0.5%, rising to only 1.0% growth (down from 1.2% previously) in 2013. For Russia, the second most important source market (and of growing relative importance), BMI has revised up the growth forecast for 2012 to 3.4%.
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