Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/28/2012 -- BMI View: Ukraine's dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes - exacerbated by the government's power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level while sales prices for power are low, although the IMF is forcing through tariff increases.
Key trends and recent developments in the Ukrainian electricity market include:
- Ukraine's power generation in 2011 is put by BMI at 176.15 terawatt hours (TWh). During the period 2012-2021, Ukraine's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.08%, reaching 216.35TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.50% gain in gasfired generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role in the country's energy mix, growing by an annual average of 23.14% between 2012 and 2021.
- Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from 13.2GW at present. The scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs. Furthermore, the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine's capabilities
- Ukrainian company DTEK Group has awarded Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas Wind Systems a contract to supply wind turbines for the Botievo power project in the Zaporozhye region of Ukraine. The plant, which is due for completion in Q412, is one of the main key projects in the pipeline in terms of non-hydro renewables.
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