Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/15/2013 -- We have downgraded our US real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, owing mainly to base effects from late 2012 and the decision to maintain the 'sequester' cuts to federal spending. Our core view on the US economy is that the recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched, and that by 2014, many of the headwinds to growth will be dissipating. Our forecast for improving yet below-trend consumption is predicated upon several factors. The increase in payroll tax beginning in 2013 will be a headwind. However, recent data show that despite this decline, real disposable income has been rising slowly in year-on-year terms, and given the weak inflation picture in the US, we see potential for additional strength. Still, we see remaining uncertainties for the consumer sector, and we expect food and drink consumption growth to remain subdued in the medium term as a result.

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Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

- 2013 per capita food consumption = +1.9%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +2.6%.
- 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.5%; CAGR to 2017 = +3.6%.
- 2013 soft drink value sales = +3.0%; CAGR to 2017 = +2.1%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.7%; CAGR to 2017 = +2.7 %.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Smithfield Deal Highlighting China-US Opportunities: The recent offer by Chinese pork producer Shuanghui International to buy US pork producer Smithfield Foods shows the pressure local Chinese producers are feeling to find more efficient procurement options. China is the world's largest consumer of pork, and we forecast growth in pork demand to remain steady over the medium term (at 3.75% on average annually over the coming years to 2016/17). Even though consolidation and efficiency gains in the country's pork industry will help to narrow pork production deficits out to 2016/17, we expect China to remain dependent on pig and pork imports over the medium term. The country's pig imports increased from 2,000 head in 2002 to 18,000 head in 2012, while pork imports increased from 91,000 tonnes to 730,000 tonnes over the same period.

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