Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Agribusiness Report Q4 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/20/2014 -- With a deteriorating economic environment , the Argentine grain sector will continued play centre stage over the medium term. With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital , but there is increasing evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy . Nonetheless, s oybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term, and we expect the poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to relatively high retail dairy prices and investment into the sector.
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- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 3% to 25.7mn tonnes. Our revised growth projections stem from lower average corn prices in coming years along with more substitution to soybean plantings.
- Soybean production growth to 2017/18: 5% to 52.7mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing export demand for soybeans along with more value-added products such as soybean oil. Soybean crops are also generally less capital-intensive than corn crops due to lower input costs.
- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 16% to 2.3mn tonnes. Most production growth will come from improving trade demand, as we see comparatively subdued growth in the domestic market.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 0.4% year-on-year (down from 2.9% in 2013; predicted to average 3.5% from 2014 until 2018).
- Consumer price index (end of period): 32% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 10.6% in 2013).
We see upside risks to our already optimistic production growth forecasts for the Argentine poultry sector, as the sector outlook improves due to falling grain prices and increased trade opportunities as a result of the Russian...
The Argentina Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Argentina Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Argentina.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
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