New Business market report from Business Monitor International: "Bahrain Real Estate Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/24/2013 -- The Bahrain Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country in the context of political stability issues in a market already characterised by oversupply.
With a focus on the three principal cities of Manama, Riffa and Muharraq; the report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the government-fed construction boom as the commercial real estate market continues to suffer the fallout from the global financial crisis and political unrest. It has been one of the slowest Gulf Cooperation Council economies to recover from the crisis, and the protests mean that economic growth is likely to be slow. In the real estate sector this has translated into falling rents and an endemic oversupply of rental space.
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In spite of these challenges, elevated oil prices and higher oil production are likely to help build an economic recovery over the coming years, though it will be slow in coming. There is some irony in the fact that the very same unrest that is causing so much damage to the wider economy in the region is also responsible for the rise in oil prices that is going to fuel economic growth. Since oil makes up 80% of Bahrain's export income, GDP growth is extremely sensitive to movements in the price of oil. As a result, it is difficult to be optimistic about the short-term prospects for Bahrain's commercial real estate market. The longer-term outcome will depend on Bahrain achieving a level of economic growth outside the exportoriented oil sector.
- Bahrain's economy will remain on a recovery path heading into 2014, driven by a normalisation of oil output, continued improvements in non-oil business activity, and steadfast fiscal support from the government. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.3% this year and 3.4% in 2014, up slightly from our previous projections of 3.7% and 3.2%. However, the continued uncertainty of Bahrain's political trajectory remains a key downside risk.
- Bahrain's long-running political crisis has entered a more acute phase over the last few months, marked by increasingly frequent incidents of violence and an intensification of repressive measures on the regime's part. This continues to pose a key downside risk to the country's economic outlook, while limiting the chances of a near-term political breakthrough.
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