Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/03/2014 -- Refined metal production and consumption in Brazil will see accelerating growth in the years ahead on the back of expansion in Brazil's automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. However, the coming quarters will remain challenging owing to weak economic growth marked by subdued private consumption and fixed-asset investment.

Stronger Sector Performance In Latter Half Of Decade

We expect metals consumption and production to face headwinds in the coming quarters on account of modest economic growth ( see ' Slow Growth Here To Stay ,' September 9). We forecast real GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015 on the back of sluggish private consumption, subdued fixed asset investment, and a weak business environment. Moreover, electricity costs remain elevated, raising costs for the energy-intensive metals industry. Nevertheless, our multi-year outlook towards Brazilian economic growth is more constructive, as we forecast solid growth in the automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. We therefore expect metals demand, and hence production, to accelerate in the latter half of the decade.

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The majority of Brazilian metals production will be consumed within the country, providing an opportunity for companies to increase revenues and profits in the domestic market in the years ahead as economic growth improves. We expect domestic aluminium and copper demand to exceed production, in contrast to steel, which will see production levels exceed consumption.

While firms will be able to take advantage of stronger economic fundamentals on one hand, they will also face constraints from Brazil's complex tax and regulatory environment on the other. The latter will add to production costs and put pressure on margins. Lower import duties on certain metal products, after higher rates in previous years, will also weigh on domestic producers....

The Brazil Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.

BMI's Brazil Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazil metals market.
Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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