Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/26/2013 -- Political uncertainty will continue to mar any real progress in tackling funding shortages with which the Bulgarian healthcare system is grappling. While volume demand will continue to shape the development of the country's pharmaceutical market, we expect Bulgaria's wider operating environment to remain below par, in the short term at least.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.22bn (US$1.46bn) in 2012 to BGN2.32bn (US$1.58bn) in 2013; +4.5% in local currency terms and +7.9% in US dollar terms. Forecasts slightly lower in relation to Q4 2013 projections, on account of macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: BGN5.60bn (US$3.68bn) in 2012 to BGN5.70bn (US$3.87bn) in 2013; +1.8% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts slightly lower in relation to Q4 2013 projections, on account of macroeconomic factors.

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Risk/Reward Ratings: In Q1 2014, Bulgaria's Risks and Rewards scores stand firmly above the regional average. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook, in addition to positive factors, such as the increasing per capita consumption of medicines from a relatively low base.

Key Trends And Developments

- According to October 2013 statements made by Maya Manolova, the member of parliament (MP) from the Bulgarian Socialist party (BSP) and the deputy chairperson of the parliament, medicine prices rose 300% during the previous government's regime. Manolova stated that former health minister Desislava Atanasova's tenure was marred by the collapse of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and problems at public hospitals due to the government's inability to take corrective measures. Manolova added that illegal exports also became rampant.
- The Bulgarian healthcare sector will be able to use around BGN1bn (US$678.84mn) for the next programming period 2014-2020, according to August 2013 statements made by Bulgaria's health minister Tanya Andreeva. Zinaida Zlatanova, deputy prime minister of Bulgaria, managed to broker a deal with the European Commission related to the allotment of funds for medicines and healthcare, Andreeva said. These funds will be used in areas such as innovation, prevention, human resources and emergency treatment, Andreeva added.

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