Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/28/2014 -- We forecast modest growth in the Egyptian steel sector over the coming years, in line with our outlook for the wider economy. We are taking into account the influence of the weak Egyptian pound on the sector and whether depreciation is sufficient to compete in an over-supplied regional market. We expect the worsening political situation to weigh on growth.

We remain positive about the effects of Egypt's transition towards a democratic government, as investors will begin to look more favourably towards the country as a potential market to work with. We have seen these positive effects on the country are already beginning to show. For 2014, we forecast steady Egyptian steel production growth on the back of greater investment in expanding production capacity and more stability in the country following the 2013 ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as greater investment pouring in from Gulf countries looking diversify their regional portfolios.

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In addition to more favourable market dynamics, BMI's forecast for 2014 is supported by Elmarakby Steel's plans to open its first meltshop producing steel billets from scrap by the end of the year. The 350,000tpa EAF in Giza will feed an existing 240,000tpa rolling mill, with the remainder exported or sold on the domestic market. The country has been operating well under full capacity, with a utilisation rate under its 8.8mntpa potential. Even without further capacity expansion, Egypt has the potential to grow by up to 30% from 2010 levels, using plants that are currently in operation. That said, our expectation for continued political and economic upheaval will weigh on growth.

The Egypt Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Egypt.

BMI's Egypt Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Egypt.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egypt metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Egypt through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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