Fast Market Research recommends "India Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/04/2013 -- Core Views
Conditions are ripe for investment spending to lead an economic growth upturn, aided at the margin by an improving export performance.
That said, the government's persistent fiscal failings will prevent a more pronounced growth recovery, by keeping interest rates high and weighing on overall investor sentiment.
The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will outline India's most significant budget for several years on February 28. On balance, we see a mixture of both populism and pragmatism which, although unlikely to fully satisfy either the electorate or investors, should prevent a major fiscal unravelling this year.
We do not envisage an extended easing cycle in the coming quarters, as external and domestic demand improve at the margin and the lack of concrete fiscal retrenchment keep inflationary pressures historically high. We see scope for 50 basis points of cuts by end- FY2013/14 (April-March).
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Major Forecast Changes
We remain above consensus on India's economic growth outlook, calling for headline expansion of 5.5% and 6.1% for FY2012/13 and FY2013/14 (versus market expectations of 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively).
We have revised down our long-term forecasts for the Indian rupee due to the persistence of India's twin fiscal and current account deficits. We now see only mild appreciation to INR52.00/US$ by end-FY2013/14.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Risks To Near-Term Growth Outlook: A possible sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status is arguably the greatest risk to our benign growth outlook.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Iran Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Ireland Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Switzerland Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- United States Business Forecast Report Q2 2013