Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "India Metals Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/28/2013 -- BMI View: Indian metals production will hit headwinds in 2013 as market growth moderates in the face of a slowdown in the automotive industry. Producers may also struggle to secure raw material and energy supplies for their operations. That said, the long-term outlook for India's metals sector is very optimistic. We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years, in line with the country's industrialisation and growth of a wealthy middle class. This will spur production; however, we do not expect production to keep up and this India will become a major importer of metals in the coming years, rather than a small exporter.
Vedanta's expansion project, which is raising its smelting capacity from 1.6mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 2.5mtpa, along with a recovery in the aluminium market and hope that constraints to growth will be alleviated, should support 35% growth in primary aluminium output to 1.9mnt in 2016. In addition, we have raised our forecast for net exports from 132,000 tonnes to 261,000 tonnes in 2011. Lower levels of domestic consumption than previously forecast should ensure that India maintains a trade surplus in aluminium over the medium term and does not descend into deficit.
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Indian refined lead output declined by 9.5% to 151,212 tonnes in 2012 despite Vedanta subsidiary Hindustan Zinc Ltd's (HZL) new 100,000tpa Dariba complex, commissioned in Q312, coming online. By 2013, Indian lead smelting will have reached the limit of capacity. However, consumption will continue to rise, forcing the market to depend on imports, which should reach 75,000 tonnes by 2016.
Production growth strengthened in 2011 after industry leader HZL brought its Rajpura Dariba smelter up to full capacity. India will remain balanced between supply and demand with modest net exports over the next five years. Beyond 2011, the medium-outlook for consumption is broadly positive.
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